For insurers & reinsurers
Why it matters to you
The decision. Reserving against a UK arable book means estimating the probability of a below-average year before the loss crystallises. An independent early-warning signal sharpens that estimate and flags which regions to watch.
Where the edge bites. An independent, regionally-resolved yield-risk signal sharpens reserving estimates and flags which regions to watch, with the farmer-sentiment layer surfacing disease and weather stress in real time, weeks before official data.
Portfolio view. Eleven regions independently scored lets you see concentration risk, a book over-weighted to a region flagging compound stress is a portfolio signal, not just a single-policy one.
The value, concretely
Sizing the edge
What it's worth to you: on a £50m crop or parametric book, anticipating one below-average year a quarter early, or trimming exposure to a region heading into compound stress, is comfortably a seven-figure swing in reserving and loss ratio. On the bad-year calls it makes with conviction the model is right 24 of 26 times on a walk-forward basis, directional, auditable, early. Illustrative of the value at stake, not a guarantee.
See it for yourself
- Today's per-region call, the live signal, no login.
- Track record, 62.3% walk-forward, fully public, independently auditable.
- Case studies, 2019 (8/9 correct), 2023 (6/6), 2018 (the honest miss).
- Methodology, what the model uses, without the secret sauce.
Questions
Is this regulated advice?
No. CropIntel publishes directional forecasts and yield-risk signals. It informs your own underwriting and reserving models; it doesn't replace them.
No. CropIntel publishes directional forecasts and yield-risk signals. It informs your own underwriting and reserving models; it doesn't replace them.
How do we validate it?
The full walk-forward track record is public: 62.3% on the conviction calls the model made (38 of 61), p<0.0001 across the scored region-years, with the 2018 honest miss documented. Independently verifiable, not a black-box claim.
The full walk-forward track record is public: 62.3% on the conviction calls the model made (38 of 61), p<0.0001 across the scored region-years, with the 2018 honest miss documented. Independently verifiable, not a black-box claim.
What would we be buying?
The whole asset: the regional yield-risk engine, the curated corpus, and the validated track record, with full IP assignment. Talk to us.
The whole asset: the regional yield-risk engine, the curated corpus, and the validated track record, with full IP assignment. Talk to us.
Acquire the system
The live signal is public. What's not public is the engine, the curated UK arable practitioner corpus, and the methodology behind the 62.3%: the defensible IP. The whole system is available to acquire by a strategic buyer, with full IP assignment. See the opportunity, or email alastair@hurricane.works.
Also for: grain merchants · commodity desks · data publishers · agritech platforms
Related: all use cases · The opportunity · Track record · About