Today's call
BEARISH, below-average yield, price-supportive
6 of 11 regions below-average, 2 above. Crops are being drilled (planted). Weather during this phase determines establishment.
UK farmer sentiment this week: mildly negative (-0.11).
Confidence overlay ×1.07, sentiment confirms the directional call.
What this means for price
A below-average yield call is historically price-supportive: less wheat to go around, milling buyers compete, merchants pay up to lock supply, and UK feed wheat futures have tended to firm into harvest. The strength of that pattern depends on how unanimous the regions are.
How our yield calls have related to ex-farm price over the years (and why the link is looser than you'd think): yield and price.
Active early-warning signal
disease pressure running 4.4× above its recent baseline (national), a sentiment-side keyword anomaly. Read alongside the
weather call, not in place of it.
Per-region call
Predicted yield anomaly (t/ha vs trend) and compound stress per DEFRA region. Below-average regions first.
| Region | Call | Yield anomaly | Compound stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| North West & Merseyside | Below average | -1.06 | +1.9 |
| Wales | Below average | -0.46 | +1.3 |
| Northern Ireland | Below average | -0.25 | +0.2 |
| South East & London | n/a | -0.16 | +0.1 |
| North East | Below average | -0.10 | -0.8 |
| Eastern | Below average | -0.07 | -0.3 |
| East Midlands | n/a | -0.07 | -0.4 |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | Below average | -0.00 | -0.9 |
| West Midlands | n/a | +0.09 | -0.1 |
| South West | Above average | +0.11 | +0.4 |
| Scotland | Above average | +0.23 | +0.3 |
How we get here: Methodology · Weather detail · Sentiment pulse · Track record