The UK wheat harvest, called weeks before the market reprices.
UK wheat price is set late: by the time DEFRA and AHDB report, the trade has already moved. CropIntel forecasts the harvest daily, region by region, with a real-time farmer-sentiment layer no one else has, while the decision is still open.
One short email each morning: today's call, sentiment direction, alerts if anything's spiking. Unsubscribe any time.
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Why CropIntel is ahead
The only UK wheat forecast with a real-time farmer-sentiment signal, drawn from a curated arable practitioner corpus. Nobody else fuses it with the weather and satellite model.
A fresh per-region call every morning, against weekly or monthly reporting elsewhere, and weeks ahead of official harvest estimates.
A public, walk-forward track record, not a black box. Every call is timestamped and independently verifiable.
Side by side with AHDB, Stratégie Grains and AgriBriefing: the comparison.
Who it's for, and what the edge is worth
Illustrative value at stake on a decision of that scale, not a guaranteed return. Full workings on each page.
All five segments, including agritech platforms: use cases.
It works, and you can check
Every call is public and timestamped. Audit the full record and the predicted-vs-actual scatter on the track record.
What CropIntel is
A daily UK wheat yield and cereal price intelligence system, combining:
- A deep historical baseline of regional weather (ERA5 reanalysis), as a per-region compound stress score across the growth cycle.
- Satellite NDVI (Sentinel-2) for canopy condition.
- UK farmer sentiment from a curated practitioner corpus, mapped to DEFRA regions and scored by a hybrid lexicon + LLM pipeline.
- A multi-component ensemble with consensus filtering, emitting a directional call only when the components agree.
How it works, in plain English: the methodology.
The model, methodology, curated corpus and public track record are available to acquire by a strategic buyer. What it's worth to you is a multiple of any build cost. The opportunity ›
Frequently asked questions
How accurate is CropIntel?
62.3% tradeable hit rate on a walk-forward backtest covering 1999–2025 (253 region-years, p<0.0001 on predicted vs actual yield anomaly). Walk-forward means each year's call uses a model trained only on prior years, no in-sample fit. Full per-year breakdown and a predicted-vs-actual scatter chart are on the Track Record page.
How does the sentiment scoring work?
Two layers, blended. A hand-curated UK-agri lexicon spanning the major arable signal categories (disease, weather, progress, etc.) scores each post deterministically. A frontier LLM then scores each post in [-1, +1] with a one-line rationale, catching sarcasm and context the lexicon misses. The two scores are blended with weight toward the LLM, producing a directional signal that is both explainable and reproducible.
Where does the farmer-sentiment data come from?
Active arable forums on The Farming Forum (TFF). Compliant ingest with publisher-respecting rate limits and an identifying user-agent. We don't republish raw post text. Authors are anonymised to initials on the public site. Twitter/X integration is on the roadmap.
How current is "current"?
Daily refresh at 07:00 UTC. By 07:25 UTC the dashboard, sentiment aggregates, and signals snapshot reflect the full overnight data. The site rebuilds and the email summary fires from the same run.
Is any of this gated?
No. The whole site is public: today's direction call, the regional outlook, the sentiment detail, and the live forward-prediction log. The system that produces it is available to acquire (see the opportunity).
Is CropIntel financial advice?
No. CropIntel is a data product that publishes directional forecasts. Trading on those forecasts involves risk of loss. We do not provide regulated investment advice or recommend specific positions.
How is this different from AHDB / AgriBriefing / Stratégie Grains?
Those services publish slower-cadence editorial analysis and weekly reports. CropIntel gives you a daily-refreshed model output plus the real-time farmer-sentiment overlay that nobody else combines. We're complementary to AHDB, not a replacement.
Recent reading
2019, disaster year, 8 of 9 regions correct. The walk-forward model called the wet autumn drilling and hot June flowering stress correctly across the wheat belt.
2023, wet harvest, 6 of 6 high-confidence regions correct. Compound flowering and ripening stress flagged the below-average yield.
2018, where we got it wrong. The model called bearish on heat stress; UK wheat actually benefited from low disease pressure that year. Honest writeup of why.
Drill down: Methodology · Track Record · Glossary · Sentiment Pulse · About