CropIntel by the numbers

Name: CropIntel headline statistics
Creator: Alastair Campbell

Headline statistics for diligence, citation, and quick reference. Each figure is grounded in the public track record and methodology.

62.3%
Tradeable hit rate, walk-forward 2003-2025: of the 61 medium/high-conviction directional calls the model made, 38 were correct.
46.3%
Direction-correct across all 253 region-years. The gap to 62.3% is the point: the consensus filter only calls when components agree, turning a coin-flip into an edge.
92%
Bad-year accuracy: of the 26 below-average calls the model made with conviction, 24 were correct, the strategically valuable subset.
72%
High-confidence call accuracy (13 of 18).
p<0.0001
Significance of predicted-vs-actual yield anomaly across the 231 scored region-years (r=0.316).
11
DEFRA regions modelled independently (Eastern, East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, etc.).
253
Region-years in the walk-forward backtest population, 2003-2025 (231 with confirmed outcomes).
4 layers
Independent data sources feeding the ensemble: weather, soil, satellite, sentiment.
2 layers
Independent scoring methods per practitioner observation, a hand-curated UK-agri lexicon and a frontier LLM, blended toward the LLM.
Daily
Refresh cadence, every morning at 07:00 UTC, full pipeline finishes by 07:25 UTC.
8 of 9
DEFRA regions called correctly in 2019, the canonical UK wheat disaster year.
6 of 6
DEFRA regions called correctly in 2023, a wet-harvest year.

How to cite

CropIntel statistics may be cited freely for research, journalism, and diligence purposes. Suggested citation:

CropIntel (2026). UK wheat yield forecasting, walk-forward backtest 2003-2025. Retrieved from https://cropintel.net/statistics