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# Weather outlook

Regional compound-stress detail · crop year 2025/2026 · stage Stem Extension · 2026-05-26

What this shows

The [compound stress score](/glossary#compound-stress) aggregates
weather deviation across the wheat growth cycle for each DEFRA region, against
the long-run regional baseline. Positive = worse than baseline. It's the
headline weather feature behind [today's call](/today).

## Compound stress by region

| Region | Compound stress | Stressed stages |
|---|---|---|
| Wales | +2.1 ← | 1 |
| North West & Merseyside | +1.6 ← | 1 |
| North East | +0.7 | 0 |
| Northern Ireland | +0.5 ← | 1 |
| Scotland | +0.4 | 0 |
| South West | -0.0 | 0 |
| West Midlands | -0.7 | 0 |
| East Midlands | -0.8 | 0 |
| South East & London | -1.0 | 0 |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | -1.2 | 0 |
| Eastern | -2.1 | 0 |

← marks regions with one or more stages flagged stressed.

Related: [Today's call](/today) ·
[Methodology](/methodology) ·
[Track record](/track-record)