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# Today's call

Crop year 2025/2026 · stage Stem Extension · 2026-05-26

NEUTRAL, regions split, no directional call

2 of 11 regions below-average, 4 above. Crops are growing rapidly. Drought and late frost are risks.

**UK farmer sentiment this week:** mildly negative (-0.11).
Confidence overlay **×1.00**, sentiment is neutral on the directional call.

What this means for price

With regions split, there's no directional price read this week. The historical yield-to-price relationship only bites when the yield call is itself directional.

How our yield calls have related to ex-farm price over the years (and why
the link is looser than you'd think): [yield and price](/yield-and-price).

## Active early-warning signal

**disease pressure running 2.5× above its recent baseline (national)**, a sentiment-side keyword anomaly. Read alongside the
weather call, not in place of it.

## Per-region call

Predicted yield anomaly (t/ha vs trend) and compound stress per DEFRA region. Below-average regions first.

| Region | Call | Yield anomaly | Compound stress |
|---|---|---|---|
| North West & Merseyside | Below average | -0.79 | +1.6 |
| Northern Ireland | Below average | -0.68 | +0.5 |
| North East | n/a | -0.15 | +0.7 |
| South West | n/a | -0.07 | -0.0 |
| Scotland | n/a | +0.08 | +0.4 |
| West Midlands | n/a | +0.28 | -0.7 |
| East Midlands | n/a | +0.29 | -0.8 |
| Yorkshire & The Humber | Above average | +0.35 | -1.2 |
| Wales | Above average | +0.69 | +2.1 |
| South East & London | Above average | +0.71 | -1.0 |
| Eastern | Above average | +0.74 | -2.1 |

How we get here: [Methodology](/methodology) ·
[Weather detail](/weather) ·
[Sentiment pulse](/sentiment-pulse) ·
[Track record](/track-record)