# The UK wheat harvest, called weeks before the market reprices. UK wheat price is set late: by the time DEFRA and AHDB report, the trade has already moved. CropIntel forecasts the harvest **daily, region by region**, with a **real-time farmer-sentiment layer no one else has**, while the decision is still open. This week in UK arable, week 22, 2026 Your browser doesn't support inline video. [Download the MP4](/videos/2026-w22-summary.mp4). Today's call · 2026-06-05 **BULLISH, above-average yield, price-softening** · stage: Flowering & Grain Fill. Critical phase. Heat stress and rain reduce yield and quality. 2 of 11 regions below-average · 5 above · **UK farmer sentiment this week:** mildly negative (-0.07). Full per-region breakdown and the price implication on [today's call](/today). Get the daily summary by email One short email each morning: today's call, sentiment direction, alerts if anything's spiking. Unsubscribe any time. [Sign-up form, see the live page.] Double opt-in. We never share your email. Unsubscribe link in every message. ## Why CropIntel is ahead **The only sentiment layer** The only UK wheat forecast with a real-time farmer-sentiment signal, drawn from a curated arable practitioner corpus. Nobody else fuses it with the weather and satellite model. **Daily, region by region** A fresh per-region call every morning, against weekly or monthly reporting elsewhere, and weeks ahead of official harvest estimates. **A record you can audit** A public, walk-forward track record, not a black box. Every call is timestamped and independently verifiable. Side by side with AHDB, Stratégie Grains and AgriBriefing: [the comparison](/comparison). ## Who it's for, and what the edge is worth Illustrative value at stake on a decision of that scale, not a guaranteed return. Full workings on each page. [~£3mData publishers, new recurring revenue](/for/data-publishers) [£1-2m/yrGrain merchants, better-timed cover](/for/grain-merchants) [£1m+Insurers, per anticipated bad year](/for/insurers) [7-figureCommodity desks, seasonal PnL](/for/commodity-desks) All five segments, including agritech platforms: [use cases](/for/). ## It works, and you can check [62.3%Walk-forward tradeable hit rate](/track-record) 8/9 Regions correct, 2019 disaster 6/6 High-confidence, 2023 wet harvest 253 Region-years, p<0.0001 Every call is public and timestamped. Audit the full record and the predicted-vs-actual scatter on the [track record](/track-record). ## What CropIntel is A daily UK wheat yield and cereal price intelligence system, combining: - A deep historical baseline of regional weather (ERA5 reanalysis), as a per-region compound stress score across the growth cycle. - Satellite NDVI (Sentinel-2) for canopy condition. - UK farmer sentiment from a curated practitioner corpus, mapped to DEFRA regions and scored by a hybrid lexicon + LLM pipeline. - A multi-component ensemble with consensus filtering, emitting a directional call only when the components agree. How it works, in plain English: [the methodology](/methodology). Available to acquire The model, methodology, curated corpus and public track record are available to acquire by a strategic buyer. What it's worth to you is a multiple of any build cost. [The opportunity ›](/the-opportunity) ## Frequently asked questions ### How accurate is CropIntel? 62.3% tradeable hit rate on a walk-forward backtest covering 1999–2025 (253 region-years, p<0.0001 on predicted vs actual yield anomaly). Walk-forward means each year's call uses a model trained only on prior years, no in-sample fit. Full per-year breakdown and a predicted-vs-actual scatter chart are on the [Track Record page](/track-record). ### How does the sentiment scoring work? Two layers, blended. A hand-curated UK-agri lexicon spanning the major arable signal categories (disease, weather, progress, etc.) scores each post deterministically. A frontier LLM then scores each post in [-1, +1] with a one-line rationale, catching sarcasm and context the lexicon misses. The two scores are blended with weight toward the LLM, producing a directional signal that is both explainable and reproducible. ### Where does the farmer-sentiment data come from? Active arable forums on The Farming Forum (TFF). Compliant ingest with publisher-respecting rate limits and an identifying user-agent. We don't republish raw post text. Authors are anonymised to initials on the public site. Twitter/X integration is on the roadmap. ### How current is "current"? Daily refresh at 07:00 UTC. By 07:25 UTC the dashboard, sentiment aggregates, and signals snapshot reflect the full overnight data. The site rebuilds and the email summary fires from the same run. ### Is any of this gated? No. The whole site is public: today's direction call, the regional outlook, the sentiment detail, and the live forward-prediction log. The system that produces it is available to acquire (see [the opportunity](/the-opportunity)). ### Is CropIntel financial advice? No. CropIntel is a data product that publishes directional forecasts. Trading on those forecasts involves risk of loss. We do not provide regulated investment advice or recommend specific positions. ### How is this different from AHDB / AgriBriefing / Stratégie Grains? Those services publish slower-cadence editorial analysis and weekly reports. CropIntel gives you a daily-refreshed model output plus the real-time farmer-sentiment overlay that nobody else combines. We're complementary to AHDB, not a replacement. ## Recent reading **[2019, disaster year, 8 of 9 regions correct](/case-studies/2019).** The walk-forward model called the wet autumn drilling and hot June flowering stress correctly across the wheat belt. **[2023, wet harvest, 6 of 6 high-confidence regions correct](/case-studies/2023).** Compound flowering and ripening stress flagged the below-average yield. **[2018, where we got it wrong](/case-studies/2018).** The model called bearish on heat stress; UK wheat actually benefited from low disease pressure that year. Honest writeup of why. Drill down: [Methodology](/methodology) · [Track Record](/track-record) · [Glossary](/glossary) · [Sentiment Pulse](/sentiment-pulse) · [About](/about)