[Home](/) › [Use Cases](/for/) › Grain Merchants

# For grain merchants & traders

Forward buying and basis depend on a yield view weeks before DEFRA or AHDB confirm it. CropIntel gives you a daily, regionally-resolved UK wheat yield call with a public track record you can audit.

## Why it matters to you

**The decision.** Every forward purchase and hedge is a bet on the harvest balance. The earlier and more granular your yield view, the better your basis and the less you over-pay to lock supply in a tightening market.

**Where the edge bites.** A directional yield call that firms up through the season gives you a positioning window before the trade has fully repriced. The signal is strongest from stem extension onward, still weeks ahead of the official balance sheet.

**Why regional matters.** UK yield is regional, Eastern drought and a wet North West don't net out. ICE feed wheat is deliverable from East Anglian ports, so Eastern conditions move the basis directly.

## The value, concretely

Sizing the edge

What it's worth to you: on a 500,000-tonne book, improving your average through better-timed forward cover by just £2-4/t is £1-2m a year. UK regional yields swing 0.5+ t/ha season to season, tens of thousands of tonnes you'd otherwise mis-price without an early read. You don't need the call right every time, only more often than the market, which is what a 62.3% walk-forward edge buys. Illustrative of the value at stake, not a guaranteed return.

## See it for yourself

- Today's per-region call, the live signal, no login.
- Track record, 62.3% walk-forward, fully public, independently auditable.
- Case studies, 2019 (8/9 correct), 2023 (6/6), 2018 (the honest miss).
- Methodology, what the model uses, without the secret sauce.

## Questions

**How early is the call?**
Daily through the season. The read strengthens as the crop develops, most reliable from late spring (stem extension) onward, still well ahead of official harvest estimates.

**Is it UK-specific?**
Entirely. Eleven DEFRA regions modelled independently, calibrated on UK regional yields and weather. No US-corn-belt analogues diluting the signal.

**What would we be buying?**
The whole asset: the model and engine, the curated UK arable practitioner corpus, and the validated public track record, with full IP assignment. Talk to us.

Acquire the system

The live signal is public. What's not public is the engine, the curated
UK arable practitioner corpus, and the methodology behind the 62.3%: the
defensible IP. The whole system is available to **acquire** by a
strategic buyer, with full IP assignment. See
[the opportunity](/the-opportunity), or email
[alastair@hurricane.works](mailto:alastair@hurricane.works).

Also for: [insurers](/for/insurers) · [commodity desks](/for/commodity-desks) · [data publishers](/for/data-publishers) · [agritech platforms](/for/agritech)

Related: [all use cases](/for/) · [The opportunity](/the-opportunity) · [Track record](/track-record) · [About](/about)